I thought I’d write an article about what happened during 2011 and include some predictions for 2012. Since you basically asked for this information, I thought I’d write my article in the context of answering your question. Actually, writing an article to sum up the year has become something of a habit for me. A year ago, I wrote an article about 2010. That article contained a few predictions for 2011, predictions which more or less came true. It will be interesting to see how my predictions fare this time around.
But before I discuss what I said last year, let me provide you with some background information. The public does not know the historical truth. Instead, they know the fairy tale version that their government has taught them. This version bears little resemblance to the actual historical truth. The truth is so well hidden, in fact, that many so-called experts do not even know the truth.
Consider this. Daniel Ellsberg, the man who leaked the Pentagon Papers to the press, when he first met Henry Kissinger, Kissinger was just about to get access to our government’s closely held secrets. During their meeting, Ellsberg told Kissinger the following (the quote is from the documentary “The Most Dangerous Man in America”).
“Henry, you’re about to get a lot of clearances higher than top secret that you did not know existed. That’s going to have a sequence of effects on you. First, a great exhilaration, you’re getting all this great information that you didn’t know even existed. And then you feel like a fool for not having known any of this. But that won’t last long. Very soon, you’ll come to think that everyone else is foolish. What will this expert be telling me if he knew what I knew? So in the end you stop listening to them.”
The reason why the people in power conceal the historical truth is because they are criminals who have committed a countless number of atrocities. Were someone to inform the public of what they have done, they would all be thrown in jail. But while the public doesn’t know the truth, governments do know the truth and they often try to use that information to intimidate other governments. They often create the appearance that they will soon blow the lid on all the secrets that have been bottled up over the years. But at the last second, right before they reveal the truth, they “change” their mind and decide to keep everything secret. This happens quite often.
Now back to that article I wrote at the end of 2010. I originally posted that article in the comments section of a blog called GlobalTalk 21. That blog contains the musings of a former Japanese bureaucrat, Jun Okumura. I started interacting with him on his blog in the summer of 2009. I would later figure out that I didn’t start interacting with him by some happenstance of fate. The U.S. government wanted to involve me in their negotiations with the Japanese government.
The relationship between Japan and America is managed by a relatively small group of people. These people have managed to run the relationship into the ground. And so at the beginning of the Obama administration, someone decided that we needed to inject some new people into the process of managing the relationship. Without my consent or my knowing about it (at least initially), my government decided to force me into participating in this process. Much of my participation occurred on that blog, GlobalTalk 21. Okumura and I had a long conversation about the historical truth, democracy, and the situation in Okinawa. I argued that the public needed to know the truth. Okumura thought otherwise.
During 2010, Japan repeatedly threatened to tell the world the historical truth. But every time it looked like they might do that, in the end, they decided to back away. This was quite discouraging to me, to say the least. And so in the article I wrote at the end of 2010, I said the following.
“For Japan, unless it wants to start telling the truth (and it looks like it doesn’t), focusing on the economy might not be such a bad idea. Of course, if America or Europe starts making too much trouble remember that you can always do what they fear the most – you can tell the truth.”
And wouldn’t you know it, that’s exactly what happened. Well, almost. I said Japan should focus on the economy. They did. In particular, they focused on U.S. government spending. They wanted America to reduce her budget deficit. That would allow Japan to reduce the amount of money she loans to America. It would allow Japan to spend more of her money on building her own economy. Over the years, Japan has loaned the U.S. government something like $800 billion. Loaning money to the U.S. government is not something that Japan likes doing. Japan has better things to do with her money, particularly after the earthquake. And so to convince Congress to reduce the deficit, throughout 2011, Japan would continually threaten to tell the public the historical truth. This is similar to the recommendation I made in my article. However, in my article I said that Japan should actually tell the truth when the West makes “too much trouble.”
There haven’t been too many people who have written about the connection between the U.S. budget deficit and the reconstruction spending in Japan. But some people have. Right after the earthquake hit Japan, Michael Lewis wrote an article about the economic consequences of the earthquake. He wrote that Japan would have to spend more of her money on reconstruction and would therefore have less money to lend to the U.S. government. That means America would either have to reduce her budget deficit or she would have to get another country to loan her money. If you want more information on this subject, you can read this blog post I wrote. That post contains a link to the original article written by Lewis.
The earthquake had another important effect on the amount of money Japan could loan to the U.S. government. After the Fukushima meltdown, Japan reduced the number of nuclear power plants in operation. That meant Japan had to increase her electricity generation from oil and natural gas. Apparently, importing oil and natural gas is more expensive than importing uranium. And so for the first time in decades, Japan had an annual trade deficit in 2011. Of course, fuel imports were not the only reason why Japan had a trade deficit. The earthquake also reduced the output of the Japanese manufacturing sector. Lower manufacturing output means lower exports. The strong yen has also been a factor. But from what I’ve read, the reduction in nuclear power and the increase in fossil fuel imports significantly impacted Japan’s balance of trade. As long as Japan has to spend more money on energy, she will have less money to loan to the U.S. government (or to provide to the Afghan government in the form of ODA).
At the request of Japan, who was anxious to see America reduce her budget deficit, throughout 2011, the Republicans and Democrats fought each other over how to reduce the deficit. In many ways, the outcome of this battle was already determined before the year began. Rather than increasing taxes, our government decided to cut government spending. To make this happen, they invented the Tea Party and had the Democrats throw the 2010 midterm elections. Later on, as people realized that merely cutting spending was a bad idea, our government invented the Occupy Wall Street movement to bolster support for tax increases. However, thus far Occupy Wall Street has not been successful in getting Congress to enact progressive legislation.
For a little more background on the relationship between government spending in America and Japan, read this article. The article is about a speech Lawrence Lindsey gave right before George Bush became president. In that speech, Lindsey argued that Japan should reduce her government spending so she could loan more money to the U.S. government. That way America could buy more Japanese products.
The fighting over who gets to spend Japan’s money will continue in 2012. The current prime minister of Japan, Yoshihiko Noda, is trying to raise the sales tax. Raising the sales tax would lower domestic demand in Japan and would allow Japan to lend more money to the U.S. government. This idea has little appeal in Japan. Right now, it does not look like Noda will succeed in raising the sales tax. The other day, nine Diet members left his party to protest his efforts to raise the sales tax. In fact, Noda may be pushing the sales tax issue not because he actually wants to raise the sales tax but because he wants to split the DPJ into two or more smaller parties.
If you want evidence that America and Japan are secretly fighting each other over who gets to spend Japan’s money, consider this. The other day, the press reported that Newt Gingrich had failed to get his name on the Virginia primary ballot. Upon learning the news, Gingrich compared the situation to Pearl Harbor. Though this comment seems ridiculous, in reality it may contain a certain amount of truth.
Although I haven’t been closely following the Republican primary, from what I’ve seen Newt Gingrich is the only Republican who argues against reducing the budget deficit. Were he elected his administration might try to force Japan into loaning America more money. This is not what Japan wants to do.
And so when Gingrich compared his failure to get on the Virginia ballot to Pearl Harbor, Gingrich was implying that Japan did something to prevent him from getting on the ballot. Perhaps Japan told the Obama administration that it would be unacceptable for a fiscally irresponsible person like Gingrich to win the nomination. Perhaps Japan told America that were Gingrich elected, Japan would reveal the true history of U.S. – Japan relations. Not wanting the truth revealed, our government did something to scuttle the Gingrich campaign. They made him look incompetent by having him fail to qualify for the election in Virginia. Presumably, Gingrich knows why he failed to qualify for the Virginia ballot and in protest he compared the situation to Pearl Harbor. He believes he was the victim of a Japanese sneak attack against America.
But other than scuttling the Gingrich campaign, for Japan, threatening to tell the public the truth didn’t work. Throughout 2011, my government tried to convince me that Japan was only following my advice: threaten to tell the public the truth whenever the West screws up. But that is not what I said. I said that Japan should tell the public the truth if the West causes too much trouble. And in 2011, just like in years past, the West made such a cluster fuck of things that I can’t even come up with the right adjectives to describe what happen. In 2011, commodities prices soared. The Muslim world imploded. The yen soared to new heights. Every time the West screwed up, Japan merely threatened to tell the public the truth. Had they followed my advice, they would have actually told the public the truth.
And just so there is no ambiguity. Here is my position. The public must be told the historical truth. Immediately. And the criminals responsible for fucking everything up must be prosecuted and thrown in jail.
By the way, the article I wrote at the end of 2010 wasn’t the only time I made a successful prediction for 2011. In the first month of the year, I predicted that France would fail miserably as the head of the G20. I was right. As far as I could tell, they achieved nothing during the year. The WTO negotiations for the Doha Round went nowhere. The climate change negotiations went nowhere. Of course that’s not what Europe claims. They say the climate negotiations were successful. But they weren’t. Other than Europe, no one agreed to limit their carbon emissions. The other countries only said that they would agree to something in the future. That’s worthless. I predict the climate negotiations will soon turn into something like the Doha Round negotiations. The negotiations will go on and on and on. Nothing will get done. But that doesn’t mean there won’t be consequences.
Before and after every major international meeting, in an effort to scare people and put pressure on other governments, Europe and America unleash a wave of terror. This is supposed to make other countries cower in fear and accept their demands. It isn’t working. In fact, towards the end of the 2011, some people were begging the Europeans to declare the Doha Round dead. The negotiations were going nowhere but people were getting killed. Nevertheless, Europe refuses to declare the negotiations dead. I think they just like having an excuse to kill people.
Incidentally, in 2012, I don’t expect the TPP negotiations to go anywhere. If there will be a free trade area of the Pacific, I expect that ASEAN will become the center of that trading regime. I think it’s about time that some of the major international institutions get moved out of the West. I am hoping that the institution that handles trade would get moved to Southeast Asia. Perhaps we could put that institution somewhere in Indonesia, perhaps Papua.
In case you’re wondering, Japan has a long history of threatening to tell the public the truth. In some respects, the events of the previous few years seem to mirror the events of the mid nineties. Then, as now, Japan seemed ready to embark on a new era. She seemed ready to tell the world about the true history of her relationship with America. The Korean peninsula seemed to be on the verge of reunification.
Here’s a comparison of what happened during these two periods.1994
· Jun. 30: The Socialists came to power in Japan for the first time ever. Tomiichi Murayama, himself a member of the Japan Socialist Party, became the new prime minister. His selection threatened to overturn the political order that had existed in Japan since 1955. For the past four decades, up until 1993, every Japanese prime minister had come from one party, the LDP. And throughout that era, their main competitor, whom they had previously always managed to keep at bay, was the Japan Socialist Party.
· Jul. 8: The leader of North Korea, Kim Il-sung, died. The future of the Korean peninsula seemed shrouded in uncertainty.
During this year, Kei Wakaizumi published a book called “The Best Course Available.” This book was an attempt to tell the public the truth about the relationship between Japan and America. In the book, Wakaizumi talked about his participation in the secret negotiations between Japan and America. These negotiations revolved around Japan’s efforts to regain control of Okinawa. America seized control of those islands after World War II. Getting those islands back would not be easy, but thanks in part to the efforts of people like Wakaizumi, in 1972 America returned those islands to Japan.1995
· Jan. 17: A magnitude 7.3 earthquake struck Kobe, Japan.
· Aug. 15: On the 50th anniversary of the end of World War II, Tomiichi Murayama apologized for the conduct of Japan during World War II. Perhaps with this apology, Japan could embark on a new era of good relations with China and Korea. But if Japan improved her relations with China and they both decided to become allies, where would that leave America?
· Sept. 4: Three U.S. soldiers raped a 12-year-old Japanese girl in Okinawa. This event forced Japan to examine the situation on Okinawa. Seventy-five percent of all U.S. forces stationed in Japan are stationed in Okinawa. America and Japan began to talk about how to change this situation. Much of the attention was focused on one base located in the middle of a highly populated area on Okinawa. The base is called Marine Corps Air Station Futenma. The residents who live nearby complain about the noise emanating from the base and they worry that one day one of the helicopters stationed at the base could crash while flying over a residential area.
· Nov. 14: The U.S. federal government shutdown begins. The shutdown threatens to damage the world economy. The Japanese economy would not escape unharmed. In fact, America shutdown the federal government in an attempt to pressure Japan.
· Nov. 19: The U.S. federal government shutdown ends.
· Dec. 16: For a second time, the U.S. federal government is shutdown in an attempt to convince Japan to get rid of Tomiichi Murayama. This time, it works.
· Jan. 5: Tomiichi Murayama announces his resignation.
· Jan. 6: The U.S. federal government shutdown ends.
· Jan. 11: The LDP returns to power. Ryutaro Hashimoto becomes the new Japanese prime minister.
· Jul. 27: Kei Wakaizumi commits suicide.
In the end, nothing happened. The LDP returned to power. The public never learned the truth. Kei Wakaizumi committed suicide. The Korean peninsula remained divided. Japan and America did not close Futenma. In fact, instead of closing Futenma, they agreed to build a yet another base on Okinawa to replace Futenma.
· Sept. 16: The Democratic Party of Japan comes to power. Yukio Hatoyama becomes the new prime minister of Japan. Immediately after assuming power, he demands that America change the agreement to move Futenma to another location on Okinawa. He also begins an investigation into a set of agreements made by Japan and America during the Nixon administration. Subsequently, Mike Green (a so-called U.S. expert on Japan) said the Japanese public voted for a democratic government but got a socialist government instead.
· Nov. 27: Japanese and American officials discussed the DPJ investigation into the secret agreements. These agreements relate to the negotiations over the return of Okinawa to Japan, the negotiations that Kei Wakaizumi participated in and talked about in his book “The Best Course Available.” Once again, Japan seems to be on the verge of telling the world the truth about her relationship with America.
· Mar. 11: A magnitude 9.0 earthquake destroys the northeast of Japan.
· Apr. 8: The U.S. government narrowly avoids a shutdown. Just like in the nineties, Congress had been threatening to shutdown the government. But this time it is Congress who flinches, not Japan.
· Jul. 31: Congress reaches a deal to raise the debt ceiling. Had Congress failed to reach a deal, we would have defaulted on our debt and that would have been a catastrophe for the world economy. Of course, the prospect of a U.S. government default did not make Japan happy.
· Dec. 17: The leader of North Korea, Kim Jong-il, died.We will see if history repeats itself. If Noda’s plan to raise the sales tax ends up splitting his party, the LDP may return to power just like they did in the nineties. Although this is the outcome the U.S. government wants, it would be the worst possible outcome. Japan would continue her long period of stagnation. Nothing would change. Nothing would get done. Sadakazu Tanigaki, the current leader of the LDP, would probably become the new prime minister. He was the guy, by the way, who told the Asahi Shimbun that he had no vision for Japan. All he wanted to do was to force the DPJ into calling an election so his party could return to power. Actually, if the LDP returns to power, Tanigaki might not become the next prime minister. Recently, I have heard rumors that the LDP might select someone else, such as Nobuteru Ishihara. However, he would be no better than Tanigaki. There is no one in the LDP (or in any other party for that matter) who is capable of leading Japan.
However, even if the DPJ fractures, the LDP may not return to power because that party might fracture too. And in that case, you may see a realignment of political parties. I have no idea how that would turn out. But I would not expect such an outcome to lead to anything positive. There are no good Japanese politicians. Moving them around into different parties will not help.
My preferred outcome would be to fundamentally change the system of government in Japan (as well as in America). Our system of electing government officials is fundamentally a bad system of government. We do not elect qualified people to run our government. Forget Japan for a second and consider America. Barack Obama was not qualified to become president. And now consider the 2012 GOP field. Unqualified idiots. All of them. I’ll give a partial exception to Newt Gingrich who has some of the necessary qualifications. But he is still an idiot. And that makes him unqualified.
In fact, our system is set up to elect idiots. Idiots are easy to manipulate. The evil people who concoct our horrifying policies can easily convince these idiots to carry out their policies. And when these policies inevitably lead to disaster, our elected idiots are the ones who get blamed. By the way, in case you want to find out more about this topic, I wrote a rather long article about this subject in 2010.
We must get rid of all of our elected officials. Voting for these officials is a worthless endeavor. How many times have we voted for someone who ended up acting nothing like what we intended? Consider, for example, Obama’s record on civil rights. Awful. Simply awful. In reality, the Obama administration has been nothing more than an extension of the Bush administration. Voting is worthless in our current system of government. We voted for change. We got more of the same.
We should allow our bureaucracy to come up with different policies and then allow the public to decide which policies they want to adopt. And if the people have a piece of legislation they want to propose then we should allow a vote on that legislation once a certain number of people signal that they support the legislation. We should allow the people to recall any government official with a simple majority vote.
To prevent our bureaucrats from doing anything illegal, we must insist on government transparency and accountability. We must know what our government is doing and when someone breaks the law we must prosecute them and throw them in jail.
I find it ironic that Republicans praise our business community, hate our government, but proclaim that our system of government is the best. You would think, given their opinions on business and government, they would be more willing to adopt a system of government that more closely resembles how businesses work. When a company has to select their personal, they do not have the entire U.S. population vote on who is the best qualified to work for their company. Instead, the people who work at the company, the people who know the business, the people who know what it takes to succeed in that line of work, they decide whom they will hire. But for some reason, we select our top government officials differently. We shouldn’t.
Anyways, back to the current year in Japan…
The sales tax isn’t the only issue on the agenda. After refusing to deal with the Futenma issue in 2011, it appears that Futenma is back on the agenda. The other day, the Japanese government submitted the environmental assessment for the Futenma relocation plan. Now the governor of Okinawa, Hirokazu Nakaima, has ninety days to decide whether or not to proceed with the existing relocation plan. He must not accept the plan. There are very few people left in the American or Japanese governments who support the plan. Publicly, they may say they support the plan. They are lying. I doubt more than a handful of people support it. And it is possible that no one supports the plan anymore. The people in Okinawa absolutely hate the plan. The plan is way too expensive. With all the difficult choices on government spending that Japan and America must make, spending $15 billion to build another base on Okinawa (and to expand our facilities in Guam) has to be the dumbest idea in the history of the universe.
But the Futenma issue is about much more than the fate of one military base on Okinawa. This issue is really about what kind of relationship Japan and America want to have. Japan wants to use this issue as a starting point for talking about the history (and the future) of their alliance with America. Right now, Japan and America have an alliance based on lies. Here’s the truth.
At the beginning of the Cold War, America and Japan made a bargain with one another. Japan agreed to end her relationship with Communist China and recognize the government in Taiwan as the one true government of China. In return, America agreed to bestow on Japan certain economic benefits. America agreed to provide Japan with an undervalued currency (originally set at 360 yen per dollar). America agreed to provide Japanese companies with unrestricted access to the U.S. market while allowing Japan to refuse to provide American companies with a similar level of access to the Japanese market. And America agreed to defend Japan. That allowed Japan to restrain her level of military spending. As you can see, America was willing to do almost anything to keep Japan and China separate from one another. To understand the reason why, consider this quote from the Pentagon Papers.
“Orientation of Japan toward the West is the keystone of United States policy in the Far East,” said the Joint Chiefs of Staff.
In the next paragraph, the Joint Chiefs of Staff said the following.
“The rice, tin, rubber, and oil of Southeast Asia and the industrial capacity of Japan are the essential elements which Red China needs to build a monolithic military structure far more formidable than that of Japan prior to World War II. If this complex of military power is permitted to develop to its full potential, it would ultimately control the entire Western and Southwestern Pacific region and would threaten South Asia and the Middle East.”
In other words, the West fears Japan and China might join forces and become a hegemon of unlimited might and power. But despite our determination to maintain their division, over the years, the deal to separate the two countries has been slowly undone. During the Nixon administration, America (and Japan) recognized Communist China as the one true government of China. This action allowed Japan to normalize her relations with China. To reward America for her rapprochement with China, Japan gave America something in return. Japan strengthened the yen. During the Carter administration, America normalized her relations with China. To reward America for this act of kindness, during the Reagan administration, Japan began removing the barriers that prevented Japanese consumers from buying American products, Japan began increasing her military budget, and Japan allowed America to impose some trade barriers of her own (that was what Japan bashing was all about). But the deal to separate Japan and China hasn’t been completely undone, at least not yet. As far as the public is concerned, Japan and China still maintain adversarial relations. And they will always view each other as enemies as long as both countries keep lying about their history.
If America were to tell the historical truth about Japan and China, if relations between the two countries truly became normalized, Japan would then have to provide American companies with the same level of market access that America provides to Japanese companies. This is what TPP is about. But until the truth is told, TPP will remain stuck in the mud. As long as the people of China and Japan view each other as adversaries, Japan should not have to provide American companies with unfettered access to the Japanese market.
On the other hand, if the truth is told and Japan has to lower her trade barriers then Japan will have to reform her agricultural sector. Right now, the Japanese agricultural sector is not competitive. This is because the farm size in Japan is much smaller than the farm size in America or Europe. In addition to consolidating farmland, Japan will also have to provide subsidizes to her farmers. More money for farmers may mean less money for ODA.China
The 50th anniversary of the U.S. – Japan security treaty happened a year ago in 2010. That was an opportunity for our two countries to tell the world the truth and form a deeper partnership. But Obama refused to do that.
This year is the 40th anniversary of the normalization of relations between China and Japan. Now China has a chance to form a deeper partnership with Japan. Recently, both China and Japan said they would make preparations for the upcoming anniversary. I don’t think China wants to screw up 2012 like America screwed up 2010.
To prevent a similar debacle, China will have to do what America refused to do. China will have to tell the world the historical truth. They will have to settle their territorial dispute with Japan (both Japan and China lay claim to the Senkaku Islands). And they will have to sign a trade agreement with Japan. On this last point, the trade agreement, despite what some western commentators might say, regardless of what happens to TPP, I would expect Japan, China, and South Korea to sign a free trade agreement in short order.
But even with a trade agreement, how long will Japan put up with a “partner” who continues to denigrate them? How long will Japan put up with a “partner” who refuses to acknowledge her contributions? Some partner. China seems hell bent on teaching her citizens that Japan is a militaristic country. This “Japan Evil Theory” has numerous negative side effects for Japan. As long as the people of China hate the people of Japan, Japan must constantly worry about a regime change in China. Japan fears the next round of leaders will truly believe the “Japan Evil Theory” and will try to take over Japan. And even if China never makes a move on Japan, this “Japan Evil Theory” is a form of non-tariff barrier which suppresses the purchase of Japanese goods by Chinese consumers.
The Communist Party continues to teach its people the “Japan Evil Theory” because they believe the theory boosts their legitimacy in the eyes of their people. The only part of history that China wants to talk about is the Nanking Massacre. Of course, Japan and China must talk about Nanking Massacre. Of course, this atrocity was unacceptable. But that is not all there is to the relationship between Japan and China.
It would be really stupid for China to refuse to tell the world the truth. Soon after the DPJ came to power, Japan told America that we should work together to “shape China’s choices.” I doubt that Japan has ever honestly explained to America what they meant by this. So let me explain. In fact, Japan wanted to have America show China how not to behave. As I said earlier, the moment the DPJ came to power was the chance for America and Japan to tell the world the historical truth. And when Obama refused to do that, the relationship between Japan and America went down the toilet. Of course, throughout this process China was watching and observing what happened. You would think that after having seen the disaster that unfolded because Obama refused to tell the truth and refused to abide by universal principles such as human rights, you would think that China would have gotten the message. Nonetheless, it appears that China may make the same mistake that America made.
You may be wondering why China and America need Japan so badly. The answer is they need her technology. Despite all the noisy rhetoric in America which proclaims that we have the best technology in the world, the truth is that Japan has the best technology in several key sectors. Perhaps most crucially, Japan has the best production technology. There is a Japanese company called Fanuc which is located at the base of Mount Fuji. This company manufactures machine tools.
“They’re the Microsoft you’ve never heard of,” said Scott Foster, an analyst at BNP Paribas. “If Mount Fuji erupted and took them out, the world would stop running.”
Losing Japan would be particularly devastating for China. China relies on other countries to provide the technology she needs for her modernization drive. Many of her exports contain parts and materials imported from overseas. Many of these components are imported from Japan. Chinese workers take these components and assemble them into finished products. They need these components in order to do their jobs. On the other hand, Japan can find cheap labor elsewhere. China is not the only country which has low wages. There are lots of poor people in the world. And this is why China needs Japan more than Japan needs China. China cannot purchase many of the parts, materials, and production equipment she needs from any country other than Japan.
If China refuses to do the right thing, expect Japan to shift her attention to India. Japan may agree to cooperate with India on nuclear power generation. Right now, Japan refuses to cooperate with India on this issue because India has refused to sign the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty and the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty. India refuses to sign these treaties because they would force India into relinquishing her nuclear weapons arsenal. This issue of nuclear cooperation is the largest outstanding issue between Japan and India.
India would not have to sign a trade agreement with Japan because she already did that last year. History doesn’t seem to be a problem either. Recently, a Japanese bureaucrat said there were no historical issues between Japan and India. In fact, I’ve heard that many Indians believe that Japan helped liberate their country from Britain. So whereas China continues to teach its people that Japan is evil, India teaches its people that Japan helped liberate them.
If China continues to subscribe to the Japan Evil Theory, Japan would have no choice but to pursue closer relations with Southeast Asia as well. I predict that Japan would start working with Southeast Asia to develop new weapon systems. In fact, the other day, Japan decided to repeal her self-imposed ban on exporting and developing weapons systems with other countries. Not surprisingly, this move angered and dismayed China.
China might as well tell her people the truth right now. Otherwise, other countries will try to extort China using the truth. They will try to use the truth to extract economic benefits from China. If the Chinese government submits to this pressure it would be unpardonable. If China gave away these benefits because other countries had threatened to tell the truth China would be giving away something that belonged to her people and would be getting nothing in return. In fact, were China to do this, in the future other countries who knew about this episode would use their knowledge of what happened to extort China again.
China is mistaken if she believes that simply refusing to tell the truth will allow her to maintain the status quo. In order to suppress the truth, governments around the world – most notably the U.S. government – have engaged in a series of inexcusable actions (for example, they have been torturing me). I believe these kinds of actions will lead to the complete obliteration of the ruling class in America. And unless other countries are careful, what will happen in America will happen elsewhere. Of course, China isn’t the only country who needs to be concerned. Throughout the developing world, the people who run the government seem to be controlled by the West. Once the truth is told, I would expect the people to throw them in jail.
On the other hand, if China finds the nerve to tell the public the truth, then perhaps Japan and China can develop weapon systems together. Were they to do this, that leaves the question of what kind of relationship Japan would have with America. If America continued to play up the China Threat Theory then the security alliance between America and Japan might be blown to smithereens. To prevent that from happening, America might have no choice but to abandon the China Threat Theory and adopt the Pacific Century Theory. In fact, I believe this later course is the only non-idiotic option for America when the truth comes out.
I see two possible futures for 2012. One possibility is that things continue on as they have been. The other possibility, the one that I am working towards, is the public is told the historical truth.
If the truth doesn’t come out, expect continued misery throughout the third world. Most likely, the civil war in Syria will continue. The rest of the Middle East may not fare much better, though I think Saudi Arabia will continue to remain relatively stable. I think the West realizes that the truth will come out sooner or later. And when it does, if the people of Saudi Arabia discover that the West had just recently instigated a civil war in their country, the relationship between the West and Saudi Arabia would be over. Despite the idiotic policies of the Bush administration, overall I think you could still say that the relationship between Saudi Arabia and the West has been okay. If the public discovers the truth, Saudi Arabia may still be willing to remain partners with the West. Saudi Arabia became a rich country while the West was running the world. And you could say the same for the United Arab Emirates, Qatar, and Kuwait. And so I wouldn’t expect too much upheaval in those countries either.
Iran is a little bit different. On several occasions, the West has done things which have really impeded the development of that country. The West was responsible for the Islamic Revolution and the Iran – Iraq war. Neither of these two incidents ended well for Iran. Perhaps the West believes that they have already screwed up their relationship with Iran. Once the truth is revealed, the people of Iran will not want to become the partners of the West. And so if the West did something to screw Iran now, that would not prevent Iran from becoming their partner later on because that just isn’t in the cards. Nonetheless, I think the situation in Iran will not get too out of control. I don’t think we will see a repeat of Libya in Iran. However, the situation with Iran may be similar to the civil war in Libya in one respect. The West may try to use the situation to drive up oil prices. To do this, the West may make it seem like they will go to war with Iran. The West often drives up the price of oil to piss off Japan (incidentally, this was why the two oil shocks during the seventies happened). If the situation with Iran remains unstable, it will be interesting to see how Saudi Arabia and the other Arab oil states react to the situation. If they don’t increase oil production then this whole episode is clearly intended on pushing up the price of oil (and those states will once again show they are in the pocket of the West). Not only that, but it will also show that those Arab states really don’t want to force Iran into changing.
If the West does decide to push up the prices of commodities, China might reduce the amount of money she invests in overseas resource projects. If she had to, China could find many of the resources she needs within her own borders. And she might do that if the following things happen: the price of oil skyrockets because of the standoff with Iran, the Europeans continue to slow their economy, and American economy slows down. Under these circumstances, China may make a greater effort to develop her own resources in order to prevent her trade balance from deteriorating too much. In that case, she may become less inclined to develop the natural resources in Afghanistan. This is, of course, a worst case scenario.
But regardless of how commodity prices fluctuate this year, I expect China to grow faster than most people expect. This year China is going through a leadership transition. Hu Jintao and Wen Jiabao will be replaced. China will want her citizens to remain happy and optimistic during this period of change. And so China will make sure that her economy performs well during the year. In fact, during 2011, China did some things to slow down her economy. Ostensibly, this was to fight inflation. But I believe China wanted to give herself some room to step on the gas in 2012. And that, I believe is part of the reason why China wanted to slow down her economy in 2011. By the way, if commodity prices remain high and demand remains suppressed in the West, it is possible that China will have a trade deficit this year. And that’s why China could not simply leave the pedal to the metal throughout 2011 and 2012. Had she done that, she probably would have a trade deficit by the end of this year.
If the historical truth is not told, expect lots of flooding, volcanic eruptions, and earthquakes around the world (governments do have the ability to cause these catastrophes). Another large earthquake would probably strike Japan. This time, the earthquake will probably destroy Osaka. Japan wants to revitalize that city. If Japan destroyed the city, Japan would be able to rebuild the city anew. Osaka would become revitalized. And it would lead to more budgetary problems in America.
Now let’s consider what would happen if someone tells the public the historical truth in 2012. This would have a tremendous impact everywhere on the planet.Japan
Under the existing world order, Japan cannot provide development assistance to whomever she wants. If Japan were to provide development assistance to certain countries – particularly in Africa – that would generate a backlash from Europe. Europe does not want Japan encroaching on her sphere of influence. To prevent that from happening, whenever Japan tries to make a move in Africa, Europe will respond by destroying the country that Japan wants to help. Europe did this in the Jasmine Revolution, by the way. The Jasmine Revolution began on December 17, 2010 in Tunisia when a man set himself on fire in protest of his government. This, of course, caused the downfall of the government in Tunisia. Everyone knows about these events. But that isn’t the whole story. Less than a week before that man set himself on fire, a group of over 100 Japanese companies traveled to Tunisia to participate in an economic forum. Those companies agreed to help Tunisia develop her economy. This made Europe angry. A couple of days later, the West made that man set himself on fire and Tunisia plunged into chaos.
But in a new world order based on transparency and accountability, Europe couldn’t do that without being punished severely. Japan would be free to provide development assistance to whomever she wanted. Once the developing world realizes what the West has done to them over the years, once they realize how well Japan has helped the countries of East Asia modernize, they will surely decide that they would be better off dumping the West and partnering with Japan and East Asia. Japan would certainly take advantage of this situation.
In fact, trying to win overseas infrastructure projects has been a primary focus of Japan in recent years. For more details, I suggest you read this pdf which contains their so-called Industrial Structure Vision. If you read that document, you will notice that Japan wants to shift the emphasis of her industrial production from automobile exports to infrastructure exports (e.g. rail systems, power plants, water treatment systems, etc.). If America were to help Japan in this endeavor (by, for example, telling the world the historical truth), Japan would probably be willing to move some of her automobile production to America. Recently, the media reported that Toyota might move the headquarters of Lexus to America. Perhaps this was Japan’s way of making an offer to America. Toyota would move the headquarters of Lexus to America if America reciprocated by doing something to boost Japanese infrastructure exports.
If Japan began funding more infrastructure projects in Africa that may lead Japan to reduce the amount of money she spends on development assistance elsewhere, including Afghanistan. Presumably, the reason why Japan began providing development assistance to Afghanistan in the first place was because of pressure from America. Once the truth is told, it is debatable whether America would continue to try to pressure Japan in this manner. But even if the truth is told, Japan would still probably provide development assistance to Afghanistan. Japan made a commitment to help Afghanistan. Japan should honor that commitment. However, if Japan determines that the Afghan government is corrupt and is misusing the money which was meant to improve the lives of the Afghan people, Japan would end her Afghan development assistance program.
If the public learns the truth and Japan decides to become a real democracy, look for Japan to begin an honest discussion about what she should do with her rural areas. Right now, those areas are slowly being depopulated. Eventually, many of those areas may become completely depopulated. I think it would be smarter for Japan to decide right now which areas will be lost, which areas can be saved, and then enact policies to carry out that vision. Using this strategy, Japan may be able to save some areas which would otherwise be lost. And Japan would save people the time and effort of trying to save an area that is already doomed.
If the truth is told and Japan abandons the China Threat Theory and China abandons the Japan Evil Theory, expect Japanese military spending to fall. There would be no need to spend all that money on a threat that no longer exists. And when the public learns the truth, they will discover that waging war is a mistake. You lose much more than you gain from waging war. They will realize that reducing military spending will allow them to have more money to spend on other more important things. And when they see other countries reducing their military spending because of these truths, they will realize that the threat against their country has been lowered and so they can reduce military spending as well.
If the truth is told, expect Japan to try to boost her cultural exports. When the people of the world discover how dominant and important Japan has been over the years, they will become more interested in Japanese culture. Look for Japan to try to take advantage of that. And look for Japan to try to use her newfound fame to attract highly skilled workers from overseas.
But regardless of whether the truth is told, expect Japan to increase the amount of electricity she generates from solar power and expect Japan to make an effort to increase the resistance of her buildings to earthquakes.America
If the truth does come out, expect a revolution in America. Our elected officials have approved outrageous, unconscionable behavior. Our non-elected officials have implemented these policies. Our media knows what our government has done but has refused to tell the public about it. In some cases, they’ve even supported these policies. Officials at our universities also know about what we’ve done and they have supported our evil behavior as well. And the people who work for our NGOs often do the bidding of our intelligence agencies. Expect all these people to be punished severely.
When the truth does come out, the reaction of the American public will be crucial for our future well being. If the public fails to denounce what we have done, if the public fails to prosecute the people in power, they will prove to the rest of the world that America has no intention of changing. We will show to the world that America is not merely led by trash. America, in its entirety, is trash.
Other countries would abandon us. They would flock to East Asia and welcome a new world order dominated by countries from that region. Because if they didn’t, they would show that their governments were controlled by the West. And those governments would be overthrown.
Much of our outrageous behavior revolves around our intelligence agencies. When the public finds out about what they have done, expect those agencies to be shutdown permanently. To give you a flavor of what they’ve done, read this article. Our intelligence agencies, along with their European counterparts, have created many of the world’s most notorious terrorists, including the Unabomber, Khalid Sheikh Mohammed, and Osama bin Laden.
The military would not go unaffected either. They’ve approved of and carried out a countless number of transgressions as well. And many of our military officials have been involved in the actions of our intelligence agencies.
Our entire diplomatic service has been complicit in these atrocities. Towards the beginning of 2011, our government recalled nearly all of our diplomats from around the world to discuss what happened with WikiLeaks in 2010. Without going into too much detail here, basically, in 2010, there was a mad dash to disclose classified information on the Internet. These disclosures included information about atrocities committed our government (as well as atrocities committed by European governments). If our diplomatic service knows about what happened in 2010 that means they know about the past transgressions of our government. And yet they remain silent.
Around the time of this meeting, one former diplomat said the following, when talking about the WikiLeaks saga, “This has deeply shaken every U.S. foreign service officer and every ambassador.”
But apparently, it didn’t shake any of them enough to make them blow the whistle on our government’s behavior. That makes them accomplices.
Our leaders didn’t do themselves a favor by creating the Tea Party and by having them “force” Congress into cutting non-military government spending. We do need to reduce our budget deficit. But by creating a party which wanted to reduce the deficit on the backs of the poor, our leaders proved once again that they are evil people who have no conscious. When the truth comes out, the public will be outraged at the people who dreamed up this scheme.
After these people are exposed and thrown in jail, we will overhaul our tax code. Capital gains, interest income, and dividends should all get taxed the same – as ordinary income. The gift tax exemption should be reduced.
We will reduce our defense spending. We are spending too much money on weapon systems that we do not need. We do not need the F-35. We do not need the Osprey. Missile defense does not work and should be cut. We do not need to operate 11 aircraft carriers when no other country has more than two. We should withdraw our military forces from overseas unless other countries pay us to station our forces there.
Reducing our military spending might draw cries of outrage from Japan. But perhaps they would feel better if we used some of the money we saved on our military to build a high speed rail system and we awarded the contract to build that system to a Japanese company. Choosing a Japanese company would make sense as Japan has the best rail technology in the world. We could build a high speed rail system from San Francisco to San Diego, from Los Angeles to Las Vegas, from Washington DC to New York, and perhaps from Denver to the ski resorts in the Rocky Mountains.
America has other infrastructure needs. We need to upgrade our airports, for example. To pay for these measures, I would expect a drive to legalize more activities (i.e. marijuana and online gambling). This would expand our tax revenue.
To further reduce our deficit we should nationalize our health care insurance system. In general, I do not support the government running important sectors of our economy. However, in this case, I make an exception. Treating our health care industry like a free market does not make sense. The industry has too many regulations to be considered a free market. To a great degree, in the health care industry, prices are already determined by government policies. For example, drug prices are determined by the amount of testing necessary to approve a drug. Doctor’s wages are determined by the amount of preparation and study they must go through before they gain their license.
We would have to eliminate these regulations in order for our health care industry to become a free market. But doing so is impractical. Deregulating the health care industry would be too dangerous. Companies might sell products and services that do more harm than good. People could die.
Nationalizing the insurance industry would allow our government to set the prices in the industry. Of course, what I am talking about here amounts to price controls. Price controls can lead to a shortage of goods and services. We may not have enough doctors or the pharmaceutical industry might not produce enough drugs. To prevent this from happening, we might have to do things like reduce the amount of training that doctors undergo in order to make sure that being a doctor remains profitable. That could impact the level of our health care system somewhat. However, the current growth trajectory of health care costs in America is not sustainable. We need to do something. We need to be able to set the prices in the industry. And in fact the administrative costs for Medicare are lower than the private insurance industry. In this case, the government option is more efficient than the private option, presumably because the public option benefits from greater economics of scale.
Once the truth is told, I expect the American public will support the development of our own natural resources, particularly shale oil and gas. The truth will show that our intelligence agencies have created many of the left wing organizations which oppose developing our own natural resources. Those agencies oppose using our own natural resources because they want us to take the natural resources we need from poor countries. This policy increases our trade deficit. Our trade deficit allows our government to complain that the dollar is too strong. The currencies of our trading partners are undervalued, we say. To solve this “problem” the Fed will print a couple of trillion dollars. When we use this money to buy other currencies, the dollar will fall and those other currencies will increase in value. This policy causes all sorts of problems, not the least of which is inflation and speculative bubbles in emerging markets. This policy also has the effect of decreasing the cost of the resources we buy from those poor countries. Here’s why. When we buy resources from other countries we pay for them in dollars. If the value of the dollar decreases over time then those other countries are essentially losing money as time progresses. When the public realizes what our strategy is, they will demand that we stop doing this.
After the truth is told, we may be a little bit short on bureaucrats after the purge and so perhaps Japan might be good enough to loan us a couple. Besides, they seem to know much more about development and infrastructure than we do. Of course, once the truth is known, the American people might be a little bit suspicious of their intentions. That is why we would need a great deal of transparency in their activities. To make sure they are acting in our best interests, we may need to record their daily activities. We could either live stream the feed or we could turn it into a reality show. By the way, in case you think I’m joking, I assure you I’m not.
After we slash military spending, to maintain our current level of investment in technological research, I think we should increase our funding of NASA. We should begin a project to send our astronauts to Mars. We might allow Japan to participate in this endeavor. Aerospace is one of the fields in which we excel at. If we agreed to cooperate with Japan in aerospace, then Japan would have to agree to cooperate with us in an area in which we could use some help. This, of course, assumes that after the public knows the truth, the Japanese and American people decide to form a true partnership with each other.
If we do decide to become true partners, expect Japanese professional baseball to merge with Major League Baseball. There are probably several different ways this could be accomplished. Here’s one possibility. The Japanese league would get split into two divisions. Those divisions would become part of Major League Baseball. The Japanese league could be split into a North Far East division and a South Far East division. For the playoffs, the winner of those two divisions would enter the playoffs against the teams from America. The playoffs would be structured as follows. In the first round of the playoffs, the winner of each division in the American League would play the winner of each division in the National League (e.g. the winner of the National League West would play the winner of American League West). This first round of the playoffs would determine the winner of each region – the Far East, the West, the Central, and the East. In the second round of the playoffs, those four teams would play against one another. In order to decide who plays who in the second round, during the regular season the teams in the Far East could play a few games against the teams in America (perhaps in Hawaii, which is located not too far away from either Japan or America). That would decide the seating of the Far East division in the round of four. The rest of the seating would go according to who had the best record during the regular season.
To extend the reach of Major League Baseball throughout Asia, I think Japan should take a few of her smaller market teams and move them to cities outside Japan (at a minimum there should be teams in Shanghai, Beijing, Seoul, and Taipei). Perhaps these cities would “share” their team with the Japanese city who originally hosted the team, meaning these teams would play some of their home games in Japan and some of their home games in those other cities.Afghanistan
Once the public learns the truth, Afghanistan will have to decide who to partner with over the long term. Afghanistan should look to her neighbors, China in particular. China has the money and the technology Afghanistan needs to modernize. They could buy your natural resources and pay you back in finished products. They could use your country to transit products across Asia. They will demand that you prevent terrorist groups from using Afghanistan to attack them. You should comply with this request. However, before China (or any other country) would be willing to help develop your country, there must be a permanent end to the war. After seeing what happened to Russia and America in Afghanistan, China has no interest in violating the ironclad, no exception, one true rule of the universe otherwise known as “The One No of Vizzini”: never get involved in a land war in Asia.
Russia will probably be willing to help you modernize. Because Russia is already rich in natural resources, she has no particular interest in developing your resource extraction industries. In some respects, economically speaking, Afghanistan is in competition with Russia. However, Russia would probably be willing to provide some amount of development assistance to Afghanistan because of your location. Afghanistan is located right next to Central Asia. Russia wants to maintain its influence in this region and Russia realizes that she will have to make some financial commitments in order to implement this strategy.
The other two countries who would be willing to provide you with development assistance are Pakistan and India. They could use your raw materials. However, they will have a hard time coming up with the money needed to develop your economy. Unlike China, they don’t have a trade surplus. Nor do they have trillions of dollars in foreign exchange reserves. And once the public learns the truth, I think your people will not have a favorable opinion of Pakistani / Indian involvement in Afghanistan.
Admittedly, I am not an expert on South Asia. But from what I’ve seen, I think Pakistan and India are working together in an effort to increase their influence in your country. There are doing something similar to what North Korea and Japan do. On the surface, it appears that both countries are enemies. But in reality, they are working together. In the case of India and Pakistan, they are both using each other as an excuse to increase their influence in Afghanistan. Whenever Pakistan does anything in Afghanistan, India uses that as an excuse to make a move in Afghanistan. Then Pakistan uses what India just did as excuse for making another move in Afghanistan and the cycle repeats. It is not at all clear that their actions have benefited the people of Afghanistan.
Of course, what the West has done in Afghanistan has been incredibly damaging. And so when the truth is told, I don’t expect the Afghan people to have much interest in becoming the long term partners of the West.
By the way, the other day I posted an article on the peace negotiations in Afghanistan. You might want to read that article if you have some time.Russia
If the public discovers the truth, the relationship between Japan and Russia might change dramatically. Actually, separating Japan and China wasn’t the only objective of the Cold War. The West also wanted to separate Japan and Russia. And to do that, they made sure Russia did not sign the San Francisco Peace Treaty which ended World War II. Technically speaking, Russia and Japan were still at war with each other long after the atomic bombs fell on Hiroshima and Nagasaki. If you don’t believe me when I say that America prevented Russia from signing the peace treaty in order to keep Japan and Russia at odds with one another, just listen to what Kent Calder had to say (he’s another one of those so-called U.S. experts on Japan).
“Although neither the peace treaty nor the security pact incorporated Washington’s geostrategic designs for Asia explicitly, they did so indirectly, by omission,” said Calder. “Most critically, neither mainland China nor the Soviet Union was signatory to the peace treaty.”
A decade after the war ended, in 1956, Japan and Russia did sign a document ending the war. However, they still have a dispute over four islands which Russia seized at the end of the war. Japan wants all of them back. Russia is only willing to give the two smaller islands back. Before the two countries can improve their relationship, they must resolve this dispute.
To be fair, it’s not exactly clear that the West has needed to exert a great deal of effort in order to separate Russia and Japan. It’s not clear how much either of those two countries want to ally with each other. Nevertheless, both would derive considerable benefits from doing so. Their economies complement each other rather than compete with one other. To see why this is so, let’s take a look at the populations and geography of the two countries.
Japan and Russia have similar population sizes. Russia has about 140 million people. Japan has 127 million people. However, the total size of the land space in Japan is only about 146,000 square miles (California has 164,000 square miles). By contrast, the size of Russia is a whopping 6,593,000 square miles. If you divide the size of each country by their population, you get the following figures. For Japan, on average, a million people must live inside an area of 1,149 square miles. For Russia, on average, a million people must live inside an area of 47,000 square miles. As you can see, the amount of space per person in Russia is about 40 times what it is in Japan. Assuming that on average a square mile of the land in Russia has about the same amount of natural resources as a square mile in Japan that means Russia has 40 times the amount of natural resources as Japan on a per capita basis. It means that Russia has more natural resources than she knows what to do with while Japan must desperately seek out natural resources abroad.
On the other hand, efforts to modernize Russian industry have been only modestly successful. By contrast, Japan has the most advanced production equipment technology in the world. And Japan has the best track record of helping other nations modernize (just look at what they did with East Asia).
Although both sides have much to gain from cooperation, it is not clear how interested they are in doing so. Probably the biggest hurdle impeding their cooperation (other than opposition from Europe and America), is the fact that Russia is a white country and Japan is a yellow country. I think Japan may fear that Russia, despite any outward signs of affection, is still controlled by the West. But if both sides manage to get over the fact that they come from different races then there is a great potential for cooperation, particularly for Russia.
Unfortunately, for Russia being white hasn’t been the automatic ticket to success like it has been for other countries. This is because Europe looks at the size of Russia and fears that one day Russia might gobble up poor little Europe. And so Europe basically has a policy wherein they want to chop up Russia into little bitty pieces over time. America has traditionally been hostile to Russia (presumably at the request of Europe). Actually, the Obama administration has probably been a high point in U.S. – Russian relations. But that’s an exception to normal U.S. policy, not the rule.
Were Japan to help Russia modernize I think Europe and America would change their tune very, very quickly. Europe would tremble in fear at the idea that Japan and Russia were joining forces. Europe would probably end their hostile policy towards Russia. As long as Russia remains isolated, Europe and America can pick on Russia. But if Russia were to side with East Asia, that would dramatically increase the power of East Asia. To prevent that from happening, Europe would have noooo choice but to abandon her hostile posture towards Russia. Europe would have to start courting Russia or risk losing her to East Asia.Korea
The truth would have a profound impact on the Korean peninsula. Some people say that a unified Korea would align herself with America against China. But if the public were told the truth about the Korean War, the people of Korea would not accept this arrangement.
The West wanted the Korean War. That’s why it happened. The West wanted a war which would make China her enemy. The West wanted a war which would allow her to isolate China and which would permanently separate China from Japan. When China sided with North Korea during the war and Japan sided with America, the West got what they wanted. The war split the world into two camps, a communist one and a capitalist one. This split became known as the Cold War. The West wanted the Korean War for another reason too. They wanted the war so they could eliminate Japanese influence from the Korean peninsula. Prior to the end of World War II, Japan had ruled Korea for decades. That is why Japan had influence throughout the peninsula, influence that the West wanted to exterminate. With a war going on, the West could kill whomever they wanted. They could kill whomever they thought might be sympathetic towards Japan. But whether they succeeded is an open question. North Korea is not the enemy of Japan. Even after the Korean War, despite the fiery rhetoric of the so-called Stalinist regime, in reality North Korea has been working with Japan and the rest of East Asia against the West. Whenever East Asia needs someone to come in and do something to intimidate the West, North Korea steps in and does something crazy.
Actually, once the people of North Korea learn the truth, perhaps they will still be really angry at South Korea. Right now, South Korea has no interest in unifying the peninsula. They are happy with their lives. They have no interest in helping the people in the North gain the type of life they have. From their perspective, they look at unification as a big headache, something expensive that they would have to pay for. Who knows, maybe once North Korea discovers the truth they will decide that Japanese colonial rule wasn’t so bad after all. Perhaps they will ask Japan to absorb their country. Japan could modernize North Korea better than the South could. And from what I have read, Korean culture is similar to Japanese culture. All North Korea would need to do is learn how to speak Japanese. They’re smart. They could figure it out.Israel
If the truth is told, expect a peace agreement between Israel and Palestine in short order. The truth will show that Israel hasn’t been the greatest ally of America. They know that their outlandish behavior makes Muslims angry with America. That’s part of the reason why they do such things. Once the American people figure this out, I don’t think they will have a lot of tolerance for that behavior anymore. America will force Israel into signing a peace treaty. It shouldn’t be hard to get an agreement. Everyone already agrees on what that treaty should contain. We just need to get the two sides to sign the damn agreement.
In case you are wondering, this is what the agreement would look like. Palestine would have a land area equal to what it had before the Six Day War. Her borders would be nearly identical to the prewar borders. The vast majority of the exiled Palestinians would have to live in Palestine. As for Jerusalem, Israel would get to administer the western side of the city while Palestine would get to administer the eastern side of the city. But there would be no border in-between the two areas. Jerusalem would remain undivided.
In fact, if the truth were known, Israel would probably become part of Europe. Then Israel would become Europe’s problem. And I think then they would behave themselves. While they seem to have no problems embarrassing America, I believe they would feel differently about embarrassing Europe.Europe
If the public does learn the truth, Europe will need to change. A lot. And if Europe refuses to do so, expect a tremendous backlash from the rest of the world. Europe will need to prove to the rest of the world that she has changed just like America must prove to the world that she has changed. The mafia must be eradicated from Italy. Europe must stop allowing her banks to hide tax evaders. Europe must not allow drug traffickers to use her banks. Europe must get out of the illegal narcotics business entirely. Europe must disclose the details of all the resource deals she has with countries around the world. These deals must be fair or they must be changed. These changes that I’ve mentioned in this paragraph, by the way, probably need to occur in America too.
And the changes that I listed for America need to occur in Europe as well. Europe must stop turning innocent people into terrorists. Europe must stop causing earthquakes, flooding, and volcanic eruptions in other countries. Europe must close her overseas foreign policy operations (e.g. the operations of the British Foreign and Commonwealth Office). Europe must shutdown her intelligence agencies. Europe must prosecute every single person who has contributed to the atrocious behavior of the West. And once the truth is known, expect the European public to clamor for a more progressive tax system too.
If the public learns the truth, NATO will probably get dissolved, particularly if America decides to form a deeper partnership with East Asia. But even if we maintain our distance from East Asia, the truth will show that Europe and America haven’t always been the best of allies. We have fought each other repeatedly, most recently in Iraq and Afghanistan. We really aren’t allies.
Without NATO, Europe will have no choice but to consolidate her national militaries into a larger organization that spans the continent. With her militaries consolidated, Europe will finally have to have a unified foreign policy. This would be a good thing. Europe has a long history of having her nations implement contradictory foreign policies. The rest of the world is fed up with this behavior. Some have even referred to Europe as a “many-headed monster.” Let me explain what this phrase means. While appearing to be at odds with each other, the various countries of Europe are secretly working together (a la North Korea and Japan). This allows Europe to both be the friend and enemy of everyone. While Italy can cozy up to Muammar Gaddafi, other European states can proclaim their abhorrence of his regime. Under this system, Europe gets the benefits from having good relations with a country while still being able to strike out at that country. They never really have to impose sanctions on anyone (because some European countries will impose sanctions while other European countries will refuse). The results speak for themselves. Take a look at the third world where Europe has influence and you will see how damaging these policies are.
Regardless of whether the truth is told, I expect Europe to try and strengthen her relationship with Japan. In a recent article published by the Financial Times, they reported that Japanese companies expected to be able to purchase some valuable European assets for affordable prices in 2012. Europe is probably doing this for several reasons. Their banks are short of cash. They need to sell some of their assets even if it means that they could have gotten more money for these assets had they decided to wait and sell them in a few years time. Beggars can’t be choosers. And the other reason why they may sell these assets to Japan in 2012 is because they want to further develop their relationship with Japan. Perhaps they believe if they sell some of their companies to Japan that will spur their economic relationship with Japan. Of course, if Japan spends a lot of money buying European assets then Japan may have to reduce the amount of money she spends on development assistance.Latin America
This year Mexico has the presidency of the G20. We should try to do something positive with Latin America during the year. America has been neglecting Latin America for too long. One theory for how we could fix our trade deficit is to have America run a trade surplus with Latin America, Latin America run a trade surplus with East Asia, and East Asia run a trade surplus with America. I haven’t checked our latest trade figures with Latin America, but I would imagine the big problem with this theory is that we don’t export enough to Latin America. In order to expand our exports to that region, perhaps we could sign a few more trade agreements in the region and perhaps we could build a cargo rail system that traverses the Americas. That might improve the competitiveness of U.S. exports to Latin America.
If the truth is told, expect America to end its bias against Latinos. Our prejudice against Latinos is both wrong and stupid. There are about twice as many Latinos in the Americas as there are non-Latinos. They are our economic partners. Belittling your economic partners is both wrongheaded and stupid.
They are both part of us and our neighbors. Having good relations with our population of Latinos will improve our relationship with Latin America. We should pass immigration reform, which would allow illegal immigrants to become U.S. citizens. This would, in addition to improving our relations with Latin America, provide our government with some much needed revenue.Australia
Recently, I have read several stories which said that Japan really, really wants to form a deeper partnership with Australia. Presumably, this is because Australia is rich in coal and iron, the two key ingredients used in making steel. In the past, the West has often told Australia to jack up the price of these two commodities in an effort to punish Japan (and China). Presumably, if Australia decides to partner with Japan, they will put an end to this practice. Unfortunately, Australia does not seem all that interested in expanding her partnership with Japan.A final word of caution
I noticed in your email you said you had to be diplomatic when you write your final report. Well, I’m not diplomatic. And I believe in transparency so be aware that whatever you say to me will get published on my blog.
I believe that it was not a coincidence that you posted that request for information on the SSJ Forum and that I answered your request. I believe the government is recruiting you to participate in the New Diplomacy, just like they recruited me. I believe they have plans for you. I do not know what they are. But I will give you a few pieces of advice. First and foremost is that you must uphold your principles. You must not break the law. When you fail to uphold your principles and you break the law you make yourself an easy target for extortion. Other people will know about your transgressions and they will not hesitate to use their knowledge of your misdeeds to extort you. I don’t know how many people have fallen into this trap since the Obama administration has began, but I know it has been a lot.
And here’s one last piece of advice. Whenever you are trying to manage the relationship between two or more governments, always look for policies that benefit every party involved.
Take care and good luck.
Tuesday, January 10, 2012
The Long Email
I wrote the following email to Lance Truong today.